WP4: Vulnerability & physical impact assessment
Objectives:
Develop multi-hazard vulnerability modules for Tier 1 and 2 structures and infrastructure, assessing damages and impact to structures and infrastructure under different single, cotemporaneous or cascading hazards. Develop the software engines for assessing losses for buildings and networks.
Description of Work:
Task 4.1: Development of multi-hazard vulnerability modules (NTUA) Characteristic “index” assets (buildings, bridges, monuments, etc.) that influence system resilience will be selected via expert opinion and statistical clustering to best represent the vast portfolio of structures at risk. Highly detailed component-by-component models will be developed for Tier 1 structures, together with corresponding fast-running simplified surrogate models (Tier 1-2) that can be employed to provide assessment of the entire asset portfolio via the tools of Task 4.2-4.3. The epistemic uncertainty due to the detailed models’ reduction to surrogacy will also be incorporated. Network models will be added in sparser detail, including their connectivity (transportation of people and goods, distribution of water and removal of sewage, etc.) and interactions (e.g. water pumps depending on electricity). Simplified physical models will be employed to lessen the computational burden as well as to compensate for the typical lack of detailed utilities’ information. A comprehensive set of future CC scenarios will be created from the hazard models of WP3. Climate-related loads (snow, rain, wind, etc.), geohazard intensities (e.g., ground acceleration) will be employed to develop the range of stressors on each index structure. These loads will be applied to the numerical models to evaluate damage, allowing loss, functionality and downtime to become directly tied to rehabilitation/recovery actions. The results will be encoded in software libraries, termed MHVM, which will be built upon the LBM concept (See methodology) to enable a seamless integration of hazard simulators and vulnerability results.
Task 4.2: Development of loss assessment engine for building portfolios (RED, NTUA) The software engine for assessing the losses for non-interconnected assets (residential, commercial, industrial, cultural heritage buildings) will be developed. Loss values will include direct and indirect monetary losses, downtime, and human injuries & casualties, to be quantified per asset in case of Tier 1, or per class of similar assets for Tier 2.
Task 4.3: Development of loss assessment engine for infrastructure networks (NTUA) The software engine will be coded for assessing the losses and functionality level of interconnected assets, focusing on public utilities, namely water/sewage/power/telecom/transportation networks. Tier 1 assets will be modeled explicity, while Tier 2 assets will be tracked at the land parcel level. Tracking and propagating the cascading shutdown of interrelated assets will be the primary task of this engine, allowing for a detailed view of the services available to the population in the post-event phase of a disruption.