WP3: Natural hazard modeling & assessment
Objectives:
Develop advanced modelling for natural hazards. Simulate average climate & extreme events in the meso/local-site scale. Assess the site-specific seismic hazard. Integrate all pilot area hazard information into a common data format on the GIS.
Description of Work:
Task 3.1: Assessment of climate data, selection of scenarios (FMI) Specific severity criteria for climate and atmospheric stressors will be developed followed by an analysis on existing EUROCORDEX climate simulation results to identify relevant “episodic” periods. A set of synthetically perturbed temperature timehistories will be examined, representing the expected long-term average warming effect over the study period. The analysis will involve results previously obtained by various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for at least two warming scenarios.
Task 3.2: Weather hazard assessment (FMI, NTUA) Dynamical downscaling of climate data will be performed down to the meso- and local- (site) scales under the scenarios selected. Computational fluid dynamics simulations will be perfomed in a scale of 10 to 2 km, while additional simulations will be performed using Large Eddy Simulation models over the finer-scale grids. The output will be employed for the assessment of the site-specific risk parameters and stressor indicators, comprising time-series and statistics of well-defined atmospheric and climatic impact indicators in a format appropriate to be used as input in the physical vulnerability assessment of WP4.
Task 3.3: Seismic hazard assessment (RED, NTUA) The latest European seismic hazard model and open-source software (OpenQuake) will be leveraged for determining stochastic event sets covering “all” potential events to occur in the study area and associated spatially correlated intensity measure fields to relate the different potential concurrent ground shaking over the region. The entire logic tree branch of the seismic source model will be employed, offering a full coverage of epistemic uncertainties in the output results.
Task 3.4: Geographical information system integration (NTUA) Information layers depicting present hazards and their associated potential to cause harm will be delivered. All data will be integrated in terms of multiple potential stochastic event sets covering millions of plausible scenarios over the next 50 years in terms of intensity measure fields for all environmental stressors from weather and geo-hazards.